Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Three new regions were
numbered today as Region 1073 (N13E35), 1074 (N19W57), and 1075
(S20W02). All three regions are a beta magnetic classification. No
flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds
averaging around 350 km/s, however there was an eight hour period of
southward Bz of -13 nT. The increase in activity is probably the
result of the CME observed on 24 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
conditions for 30-31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 01 June as the
high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 073
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 020/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 020/035-012/030-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/35/25
Minor storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01