Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 29, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W60)
produced one C-class flare, a C2.1/Sf at 28/2045 UTC. This region
has grown in size and is now in a gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 621 (S14E62) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 may produce C- class and isolated M- class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active and isolated minor storm
conditions are possible on days two and three (31 May and 1 June) as
a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun

  • Class M 40/40/25
  • Class X 05/05/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 May 101
  • Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 29 May 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 012/012-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.