Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W60)
produced one C-class flare, a C2.1/Sf at 28/2045 UTC. This region
has grown in size and is now in a gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 621 (S14E62) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 may produce C- class and isolated M- class
flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active and isolated minor storm
conditions are possible on days two and three (31 May and 1 June) as
a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun

• Class M 40/40/25
• Class X 05/05/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 May 101
• Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 29 May 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 012/012-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 20/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/15