Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were four B-class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1242 (N17W17) produced a B5/Sf
event at 0953Z and a B2 event at 1705Z. Region 1240 (S18W81) was
unchanged but produced a B7 event at 0032Z and a B2 event at 1952Z.
Region 1242 and Region 1243 (N16E50) appeared to be slowly growing
but were small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 June), and quiet to unsettled on
days 2 and 3 (1 – 2 July). The increase in activity is forecast due
to recurrence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 087
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 087/087/087
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01