Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A B1 level x-ray
event was observed at 29/0503Z. New Region 1085 (S23W24) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period at 29/0900-1200Z. Observations from the ACE
satellite indicates the continuation of a high speed solar wind
stream, with winds speeds at about 540 km/s through out the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days one and two (30 June-01
July) with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 July). The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 074
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01