Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active levels occurred until 29/0600Z, followed by
mostly quiet conditions. ACE solar wind observations indicated Earth
remained under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
Solar wind velocities gradually increased until around 29/1500Z
(peak 575 km/sec at 29/1501Z), then remained elevated for the rest
of the period. A period of sustained southward IMF Bz occurred until
around 29/0200Z (minimum -9 nT at 29/2102Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (30 June).
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during
days 2 – 3 (01 – 02 July) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 069
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01