Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 962 (S10E55) produced a C1 flare at 29/2013Z. Region 961 (S13E23) remains relatively unchanged since yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from either Region 961 or 962.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 500 km/s as a recurrent coronal hole rotated into a geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (30 June – 02 July). Isolated active periods are possible on 30 June and 01 July due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Jun 075
• Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/010-006/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/20
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01