Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 897 (N06E15) and 898 (S05E54) have produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is slowly decreasing from a maximum of approximately 600 km/s to approximately 530 km/s at time of issue.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (30 June – 02 July).

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Jun 086
• Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 012/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/010-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01