Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Regions 782 (S17E09),
783 (S01E59), and 784 (N16E70) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
period possible on 01 and 02 July due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Jun 088
• Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 095/095/100
• 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/008-010/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/35
• Minor storm 10/25/25
• Major-severe storm 01/15/15