Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2003
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Region 396 (S04W38)
produced a few C-class subflares late in the period. Region 397
(N12E53) also produced C-class activity. The region is now visible
as an elongated white light group, with a large plage field.
Magnetically the region is very confused, with a mixture of leading
and trailing polarities interspersed. The limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speeds remain elevated, now near 700 km/s. This high speed
stream is from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
The GOES greater than 2 MeV electron flux is again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally active. Periods of minor storming may occur
as the high speed stream gradually abates. Unsettled conditions are
anticipated by the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Jun 127
- Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 130/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 1234
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 030/032
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 025/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/40/60
- Minor storm 40/30/15
- Major-severe storm 20/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/40
- Minor storm 50/40/30
- Major-severe storm 25/20/15
