Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jun 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jun 29 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple low
level C- and B-class flares occurred, none of which were optically
correlated. Region 8 (S10W69) continues to show very gradual decay
in penumbral coverage and has been stable throughout the period.
Region 11 (S11W32) changed little from yesterday. Regions 18
(N15W73) and 19 (S17E72) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Day one may see
mostly unsettled conditions due to the effects of the partial-halo
coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 27 June.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 143
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 002/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC’s product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say ‘Region
number 5’ rather than Region number ‘0005’). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and ISES data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.
