Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1532 (S21E33)
produced a M2/1n x-ray event at 29/0622Z. No CME is expected in
association with this event. There were two CMEs observed during the
period. The first, associated with the M6/2n flare on 28 July, was
visible in SOHO LASCO and the STEREO coronagraphs with a relatively
slow speed (382 km/s estimated) and sourced from the southeast
quadrant of the disk. ENLIL model runs suggest a possible weak
glancing blow to earth, but beyond the forecast period. The second
CME was associated with a erupted filament from the southeast
quadrant just after 29/0000Z. Due to a lack of SOHO LASCO imagery,
this event is only visible in STEREO A/B COR2, but appears to have a
trajectory farther south and east than the first transient, and is
not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for isolated moderate conditions over the next 3
days (30 July – 01 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled to active levels
due to possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects and intermittent
periods of southward Bz. From 06Z-21Z, the field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (30 July) as weak CH
effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2
(31 July) as conditions wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on day 3 (1 August).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 131
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 132/135/138
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 011/012-008/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 30/20/05