Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1261 (N16E33) produced
the majority of the C-class flare events. The largest was a C6/1f
at 1640Z. Region 1261 appears to be in decay and is classified as
Dai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1260 (N19E03) appears to show separation between the leader and
trailing spots and is classified as a Eai spot group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E59) has been
largely quiet and stable as it rotated into view, only managing a
low level C-flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 30 July. Unsettled conditions with
possible active periods are expected on 31 July-01 August due to
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 112
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/40/40
Minor storm 01/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/10