Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 29, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
652 (N08W89) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 x-ray
flare that occurred at 29/0006Z. Although, the most significant
event during the period was a long duration C2 x-ray flare. There
was an associated partial halo CME with this flare that may result
in an glancing blow from the anticipated transient passage. The
beta-gamma magnetic structure remains unchanged as Region 652
rotates beyond the solar west limb. Region 654 (N08W02) was
quiescent today and is the only other spotted active region on the
visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to moderate levels. Region 652 may yet produce another
M-class flare before rotating completely beyond the solar west limb
through day one (30 July). Expect activity to decrease to very low
to low levels by 31 July.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels throughout the
period. The elevated conditions are expected due to the anticipated
shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO imagery from the
long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and the C2 that
occurred today.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug

  • Class M 40/05/01
  • Class X 10/05/01
  • Proton 10/05/01
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Jul 100
  • Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 095/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 020/030-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/35/35
  • Minor storm 25/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.