Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions
emerged on the disk during the period: Region 1412 (S15W41) and
Region 1413 (N08E38). Both regions were magnetically simple Beta,
B-type groups. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (30 January – 01 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period
began with ACE satellite wind velocities at about 450 km/s and
exhibited slow decay to end the period near 380 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond
+/- 4 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
27/1900Z, reached a maximum of 11 pfu at 27/2140Z and ended at
28/2120Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z was still in
progress at the time of this report, but flux levels had decayed to
below 100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods on day one (30 January). This increase
in activity is due to anticipated effects from the CME associated
with the 27 January X1 flare. Quiet to unsettled conditions with
isolated active periods are expected on day two (31 January) due to
residual CME effects. By day three (01 February), mostly quiet
conditions are expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
levels, at geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay to below
event threshold by 30/1800Z.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/01/01
PCAF In Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 110
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 014/018-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/05/01