Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1150 (S22E50) has remained stable while producing
several B-class events. Region 1151 (N11W71) decayed to spotless
plage late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (30 January – 01 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days
(30-31 January). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on day
three (01 February) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 081
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01