Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 940 (S05E35) produced a C3/SF flare at 29/1656Z. Newly numbered Region 941 (S09E69) is classified as an Hsx Alpha group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 940.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Major and severe storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. A co-rotating interaction region indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream was observed at ACE starting at approximately 1000Z. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 700 km/s as the IMF increased to 20 nT and the Bz component varied between +/- 15 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Isolated minor to major storm periods are possible on 30-31 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Jan 087
• Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 020/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 015/020-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 15/10/05