Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 29 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant
development was observed from active regions and no new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed measured
at ACE increased to over 550 km/s as a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream moved into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor
storming on 30 January from the residual effects of elevated solar
wind. Activity should subside on 1-2 February to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Jan 086
- Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 085/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 018/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 016/020-014/020-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/45/40
- Minor storm 25/20/20
- Major-severe storm 15/10/05
