Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Jan 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two new active regions
were numbered today. Region 545 (S20W19) emerged on the disk and
Region 546 (S12E68) rotated around the east limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional
active periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 to 48 hours.
Activity levels may increase by 31 January due to expected coronal
hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

• IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
• Observed 29 Jan 087
• Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 090/090/100
• 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 024/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 010/015-010/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10