Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
A series of CMEs were observed over the west limb at 29/0125Z,
29/0924Z, and 29/1212Z. Stereo-A imagery confirm the source regions
were behind the west limb and none of these are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (01 Mar). A slight increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on the second day (02 Mar)
due to a small coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected on the third
day (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Feb 102
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 29 Feb 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/15/05