Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 29, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only one flare occurred
during the past 24 hours, a B4 at 0617 UTC from Region 564 (N13W67).
This Region continues to dominate the disk in size and complexity,
but appears to be in slow decline as it approaches west limb. A CME
was observed on the southwest limb by LASCO, beginning at 1230 UTC.
The plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 500 km/s. EIT 195
difference images show that the CME must have originated from behind
the solar disk since the associated activity is first seen off the
southwest limb starting at 1200 UTC. The CME is not earthward

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There continues to be a chance, however, for an isolated M-class
event from Region 564.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Although unsettled to active levels predominated,
there was an interval of mostly minor storm level activity between
0900-1500 UTC. Solar wind data show that the activity is being
driven by a high speed stream which is associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active, with possible minor storm periods, for
tomorrow (1 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for
the 2nd day (2 March), and mostly unsettled should prevail by 3

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Feb 110
  • Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 110/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Feb 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 014/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 016/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/30
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/30
  • Minor storm 30/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 20/20/10

SpaceRef staff editor.