Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one of the period (30 December). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (31 December – 01 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that will rotate into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Dec 070
• Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 001/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/005-005/007-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/10/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01