Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Activity was at low levels. Region 843 (N12E27) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event that occurred at 28/2238Z. Region 844 (S15W59) is a Cao beta spot group that was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods may be possible on 30 December due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 December and 01 January as the coronal hole moves out geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Dec 090
• Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-005/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01