Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 29, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 525
(N09, L=292) produced a B8.9 flare at 1354Z on the west limb.
Region 528 (N08W69) continues to decay in area coverage and has
simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. A 24-degree filament
lifted off near S28E53 at 28/2240Z. A faint non-Earth directed CME
was associated with the disappearing filament.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of producing M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 31 December and 01 January due to a small
coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

  • Class M 15/10/05
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Dec 115
  • Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/100/095
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/010-010/015-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/30
  • Minor storm 01/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/40
  • Minor storm 05/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/15

SpaceRef staff editor.