Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 29 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 525
(N09, L=292) produced a B8.9 flare at 1354Z on the west limb.
Region 528 (N08W69) continues to decay in area coverage and has
simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. A 24-degree filament
lifted off near S28E53 at 28/2240Z. A faint non-Earth directed CME
was associated with the disappearing filament.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 31 December and 01 January due to a small
coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
- Class M 15/10/05
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Dec 115
- Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 013/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/010-010/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/30
- Minor storm 01/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/40
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/05/15
