Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Dec 2002
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 28/2314Z
and was likely associated with the eruption of segments of a
filament near N15E40. A faint CME was observed following the
filament disappearance. The remaining segments of this horseshoe
shaped filament continue to be quite active. The large filament near
N25W25 is also quite active. The handful of regions on the sun are
small with simple magnetic structure. New region 239 (S10E37) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The best chance for a C-class flare is from Region 234
(N18E05).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated – near 550 km/s, due to a high speed coronal hole
stream. The high speed stream is declining as the coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through the next
three days. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Dec 115
- Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 115/115/120
- 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/019
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/30
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
