Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class x-ray flares
occurred. The largest flare was a C3 at 29/0721Z from an area just
beyond the northeast limb. Visible disk regions were either stable
or declining. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (30 August – 01 September) with a chance for
more C-class activity from the area just beyond the northeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (30 August
– 01 September).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 101
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 098/095/095
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/02
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01