Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
August 30, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2007
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet 30 August. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 31 August and create quiet to unsettled conditions with the possibility for isolated active periods. Geomagnetic activity should increase on 01 September to unsettled to active conditions with the possibility for isolated periods of minor storming.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Aug 070
  • Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 002/005-008/015-015/02

5

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/30/40
  • Minor storm 05/15/25
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/35/45
  • Minor storm 10/20/30
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.