Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 29, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. During the past 24 hours region 905 (S08W35) has produced two C-class flares, a C1.4 and a C2.1. This region has shown signs of decay and is now a magnetic class Beta sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (30 August – 1 September). Due to the currently geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream there may be isolated periods where the geomagnetic field is unsettled for day one of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Aug 073
  • Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/010-002/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.