Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 29 2203 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 803
(N11E14) continues to decay and was limited to minor B-class flare
activity. The delta structure seen yesterday has eroded away
although gamma structures remain evident. New Region 806 (S17E50)
emerged today and produced the largest flare of the period, a C1
x-ray flare occurring at 29/1703Z. This regions appears to have
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A full halo CME was observed
on LASCO imagery beginning at 29/1054Z, it has been determined to be
a back-sided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Active conditions were observed between 29/0300 and 0600Z following
several hours of sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 30-31 August. Active
conditions are possible on 01 September due to the onset of a
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
- Class M 35/35/35
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Aug 089
- Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/085
- 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/008-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 01/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/20/30
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05