Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 29, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 29 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 803
(N11E14) continues to decay and was limited to minor B-class flare
activity. The delta structure seen yesterday has eroded away
although gamma structures remain evident. New Region 806 (S17E50)
emerged today and produced the largest flare of the period, a C1
x-ray flare occurring at 29/1703Z. This regions appears to have
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A full halo CME was observed
on LASCO imagery beginning at 29/1054Z, it has been determined to be
a back-sided event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Active conditions were observed between 29/0300 and 0600Z following
several hours of sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 30-31 August. Active
conditions are possible on 01 September due to the onset of a
coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

  • Class M 35/35/35
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Aug 089
  • Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/008-008/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 01/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/30
  • Minor storm 05/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.