Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 663
(N07W59) has undergone little change, and remains a magnetically
simple Beta-class region. Region 666 (N16E38) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels through 01 Sep. Chances for some C-class and
greater activity will increase on 01 Sep with the return of Region
656.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 01 Sep.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

• Class M 05/05/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Aug 086
• Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 085/090/110
• 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 006/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 004/005-004/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

VII. COMMENTS

The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE to its closest approach
with the Sun on August 30, 2004. During that time possible solar
radio noise may interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in
the loss of real time solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and
particle data.