Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (30 April – 02 May) in response to a glancing blow from the CME observed on 26 April.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Apr 069
• Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/012-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/50/45
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05