Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An active region on the east limb (N16E90) produced three C-class flares, including two C2 flares at 28/2336Z and 29/1631Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO imagery off the east limb with a speed of approximately 414 Km/s. A 6-degree disappearing solar filament (S29W21) was reported by the Holloman solar observatory.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. M-class flare activity remains possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the next two days (30 April – 1 May). Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 2 May.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

• Class M 35/35/35
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Apr 101
• Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 100/105/105
• 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 005/007-005/007-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05