Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Apr 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
April 29, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Apr 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S07W92)
has moved beyond the visible limb, but produced some minor B-Class
flaring as it departed. A new active region (N05E61) has appeared
near the East limb, and produced a minor B-class flare event on 29
Apr at 0926 UTC. It has some plage, but no discernable spots and
therefore has not yet been numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to rise to active levels for the 30th of April, due to a
possible transient passage associated with a C3.1 x-ray event on 27
April. The geomagnetic field should return to quiet to unsettled
levels for the 1st and 2nd of May.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 29 Apr 089
  • Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 090/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 008/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 015/020-010/010-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 30/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.