Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1110 (N20W31) produced
a C1 event at 28/0948Z. Region 1109 (N22W11) has decreased in both
areal coverage and sunspot count, but retains its E-type
classification and beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(29 September – 01 October).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 083
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 084/083/083
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01