Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two of the forecast period (29 and 30 September), there is a slight chance for and isolated active period at high latitudes. On day three (01 October) activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Sep 067
• Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 008/008-008/010-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 05/05/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/40
• Minor storm 10/15/30
• Major-severe storm 01/05/15