Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 28 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar Activity was very low. Only one B-class event
occurred in the past 24 hours. Region 673 (S13W90+) rotated around
the West limb. New Region 676 (S11E78) was numbered and appears to
be a simple H type spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 090
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05