Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 134 (N12E24)
produced several minor C-class events.  This region continues to
maintain its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 134 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions
are possible for September 29 - 30 due to potential effects from a
coronal hole passage.

III.  Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 149
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  150/145/145
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 179

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  010/015-015/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10