Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the period. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 300 – 490 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt also increased and reached a peak of 14 nT late in the period. IMF Bz was mostly northward and ranged from +09 to -08 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during days 1 – 2 (29 – 30 October) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels on 30 October. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels on day 3 (31 October) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Oct 067
- Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 067/067/068
- 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 001/001
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 007/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/10
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
