Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
October 28, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the period. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 300 – 490 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt also increased and reached a peak of 14 nT late in the period. IMF Bz was mostly northward and ranged from +09 to -08 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during days 1 – 2 (29 – 30 October) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels on 30 October. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels on day 3 (31 October) as coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Oct 067
  • Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 067/067/068
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 001/001
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 010/012-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.