Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 28 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 693 (S14E61) had the
majority of the small flares that occurred during the period. Its
largest event was a C3 at 0316 UTC. The region appears to consist of
a mature spot group with a moderate degree of magnetic complexity.
Region 687 (N12W37), the active center of the past few days, was
mostly quiet and stable. New Region 694 (N16E22) emerged on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at the low level.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 Oct 133
- Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 135/135/130
- 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 005/008-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
