Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/1n flare
at 1205 UTC from Region 162 (N25W59). Region 162 continues to show
flux emergence and consolidation in the western portion of the
trailer spots where the group has a delta configuration. Additional
frequent C-class subflares were produced by this region throughout
the day. New Region 173 (S17W69) emerged on the disk today and new
Region 172 (S17E44) was assigned. An erupting prominence was
observed near the northeast limb beginning around 2200 UTC and was
associated with a narrow CME in LASCO as well as a type II sweep
with shock velocity of 1015 km/s. The event was promptly followed by
a back-sided full halo CME which was first observed in LASCO at 2326
UTC.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate because of Region 162. There continues to be a slight
chance for major flare activity from this region as well. The
current observations of strong activity behind the east limb suggest
that there is likely to be a gradual increase in background levels
and activity levels over the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind signatures
continue to indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days as the
currently enhanced conditions are expected to subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 158
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  155/155/160
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  012/012-012/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05