Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period was a C3 at 28/1830Z from Region 1361 (N18E21). Region 1361
had decay in its intermediate spots with slight growth in its
trailer spot. Region 1362 (N07E60) has shown numerous smaller
trailer spots since rotating further into view. An eruptive
filament was first observed at 28/0534Z in SDO AIA 304 imagery near
Region 1362. A CME, likely associated with this event, was seen
shortly after in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 28/0809Z. The
ejecta was mostly directed off the west limb as observed in
SOHO/LASCO imagery. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event above 10 PFUs began at 26/1125Z, reached a maximum flux of 80
PFUs at 27/0125Z, and ended at 28/0145Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on days 1-2 (29-30 November). Activity is due to a
combination of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and the
coronal mass ejection (CME) from 26/0712Z. On day 3 (01 December)
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 138
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/018-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 38/31/17
Minor storm 15/12/04
Major-severe storm 01/01/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 16/15/16
Minor storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 43/43/22