Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s largest event was a B4 from Region 926 (S10E35) at 1510Z, which was accompanied by a type II radio sweep. Region 926 has a relatively simple magnetic configuration and does not appear to be growing at this time. Region 927 (N10E46) continues to grow steadily but only produced a few, low-level B-class events during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low for the next three days (29 November – 1 December). There is a chance, however, for an isolated C-class event from 926 or 927.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Nov 086
• Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 007/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 007/005-007/005-007/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05