Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 28, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 28 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Flare
production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period.
Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3
x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z. This region underwent a
slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot
group over the past 24 hours. Region 507 (N07W56) produced a
single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z. No
significant changes were observed in this group during the period.
Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z. This
region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday
while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured
complex. Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at
higher latitudes. A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 28 Nov 168
  • Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 170/165/150
  • 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 004/015-008/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.