Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 May 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled levels today. At about 27/2200Z, the ACE satellite detected a Solar Sector Boundary crossing from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation. At about 28/0130Z, a shock was detected at ACE with subsequent sharp increases in both density and wind speed, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). The CIR was followed by the onset of a high speed stream at about 28/0500Z; solar wind velocities increased to about 525 km/s by the end of the summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a brief period today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods, during all three days of the forecast period (29 May to 31 May) due to the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 28 May 068
- Predicted 29 May-31 May 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 28 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05