Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New region 890 (S14W29) produced a B1 flare at 28/1257Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. A period of unsettled conditions was observed from 28/0300Z – 28/0600Z, possibly due to a glancing blow from the CME which occurred on 26 May.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days (29-30 May). Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 31 May.

III. Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 May 085
• Predicted 29 May-31 May 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 28 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 005/010-005/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01