Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 June 2012

By SpaceRef Editor
June 28, 2012
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along
with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration
C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count
and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512
(S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but
showed little change during the period. This region produced
occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (29 June – 01 July) with a chance for another
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with
a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels during days 2 – 3 (30 June – 01 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 120
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/35

SpaceRef staff editor.