Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Three
B-class flares were observed during the period. Region 1236 (N16,
L=170) produced a long-duration B6 flare at 28/0107Z, as well as a
B9 flare at 28/1321Z. New Regions 1242 (N18W03) and 1243 (N18E62)
were numbered today. Both Regions are small and were classified as
Cro-beta groups. Region 1243 produced a B3 flare at 28/0647Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the period (29 Jun – 1 July), with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days 1 and 2 (29 – 30 June). Activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 3 (01 July), with
an active period late in the day (01 July). The increase in activity
is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 087
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01