Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jun 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred after 28/1700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the
active levels were associated with periods of increased velocities
(peak 426 km/sec at 28/2042Z), sustained southward IMF Bz (minimum
-12 nT at 28/1917Z), and enhanced IMF Bt (peak 12 nT at 28/1918Z);
all of which were associated with a favorably positioned coronal
hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with a chance for
unsettled levels through the period (29 June – 01 July).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 067
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01