Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered region 898 (S06E66) produced a B5 flare at 28/1932 UTC. Region 897 (N05E29) has grown to approximately 110 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed increased to approximately 575 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream while Bz varied between +/- 10 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 29 June, with mostly quiet conditions expected on 30 June to 01 July.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Jun 084
• Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 007/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 014/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 010/015-005/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01