Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 28 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in
LASCO imagery at 28/1742 UTC. This event was determined to be
back-sided.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 01 July due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective
position.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 28 Jun 080
• Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 080/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 008/012-008/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 15/10/20
• Major-severe storm 05/01/10